As the US 2016 presidential results came in
When the results for the 45th presidential race were announced it was clear that many polls had underestimated the Trump factor. For much of the race many had predicted a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton. Trump was viewed as too aggressive and too hard line, during some speeches and interviews he was perceived to be completely out of touch with modern progressive America. Financial markets in weeks leading up to the results viewed him as unpredictable and unruly and the dollar progressively strengthen as Clinton appeared to be leading a one horse race.
However, voters disagreed and trump was handed a good proportion of the first early announced states including Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky, conceding Vermont to Clinton.
Trump also triumphed when It came to the race for swing states had anticipated that the democrats would comfortably hold onto many of the states won by Obama in 2012. However, when the results came in Donald had won Ohio by 52.1%, Michigan by 47.6%, Iowa by 51.8%, Pennsylvania by 48.8% and crucially Wisconsin and Florida by 47.9 and 49.1% respectively.
Trumps greatest state victory was seen in Wyoming where 174,248 Americans voted for him, a number which represented over 70% of voters.
Many also believed that Trump would receive little or no support from female voters however he enjoyed 53% of the vote regardless of some unsavoury remarks from his past and Clinton actively reminding the public of these uncomfortable comments.
Final results showed that trump had comfortably won the presidential races with a comfortable victory of 290 votes to 232 from Clinton.
Where the democrats lost significant ground
Having failed to inspire and gain the support of voters in places such as Florida, Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan. Clinton immediately found herself in an extremely dangerous predicament. Of the total of 270 electoral college results needed to secure the white house these states represent 76 so had Clinton had spoken and appealed to them as Obama successfully did in 2012 she would have been elected.
The NON voters who hurt the democrats
Put simply the number of voters who turned out to support Clinton had declined significantly compared to previous years in 2008 close to 69m turned out to vote democrat and ensure Obama made it to the white house. In 2012 66M ensured he remained, contrarily Clinton didn’t enjoy anywhere near the popularity of Obama and received 59M votes. Technically therefore Hillary received more votes than Trump however, in terms of electoral college votes Trump breezed the vote and comfortably made his way to the White house.
In total in excess of 6M people turned out to vote for the 2016 US elections showing that many supported neither Clinton or Trump showing that many felt disillusioned with both parties and their candidates.
Change of tone from president Elect
Following the outcome of the presidential election and Trump’s acceptance speech many had to double take. The potential republican candidate had moved away from comments which insisted that all illegal immigrants would be deported instead only mentioning criminals who only be subject to deportation.
When also quizzed on his previous comments relating to hiring an FBI agent to investigate Hillary Clinton email and server indiscretions if he were to be elected president. He simply replied that the ‘Clintons are good people’ insinuating they would face no further investigation.
It also would appear that the wall will only be a wall in some places, in others apparently a fence will suffice.
Trumps first interview since becoming president
Following being announced as president and delivering his acceptance speech just a few days later Trump was interviewed by Lesley Stahl from CBS.
During the interview he mentioned that his adversaries the Clintons had both been in contact. He described that Hillary called to say’ Congratulations’ and ‘Well done’.
Bill Clinton also got on in contacted with Donald Trump and according to the president elect described the race for the white house as ‘the most amazing he’s ever seen’
Trump acknowledged that it had been a nasty campaign which ad indeed detracted at times from the policies of both the democrat and republican parties. Whilst defending the strategy at times Trump confirmed ‘I’m very proud it was a tremendous campaign’
Speaking on his meeting with Obama, Trump said that they two had discussed both Foreign policy and domestic policy and that what should have been a 15-minute conversation developed into dialogue which lasted roughly 90 minutes. Trump refused to divulge the exact context of the conversation with Obama only really saying that ‘We talked about the middle East’ continuing ‘I wanted to get his view’
Trump concluded that he had a ‘very good chemistry going ‘with Obama and that that the conversation was interesting.
Obama also graciously outlined that he wanted to do ‘everything we can to help you succeed, because if you succeed then the country does’.
He then highlighted that he thought that previous politician had let America. saying the American people had been let done on the ‘job front’ and the ‘war front’ which ‘we’ve been fighting for years’. Using figures to back up his argument Trump said ‘We’ve spent $6 Trillion in the middle east, ‘we could have rebuilt the country twice’. Citing that US infrastructure including, bridges roads airports had suffered.
When questions by Lesley Stahl on his rhetoric Trump defended his approach, saying that we were ‘losing this country’ saying that in certain situations ‘sometimes you have to be rougher’. However, he assured the US when President saying ‘You know, I’ll conduct myself – in a very good manner but it depends on what the situation is’.
When Quizzed on some of the promises Donald Trump had made to the American people including the Proposed wall on the Mexican Border. Stahl suggested that republican congress was think more along the lines of a fence to which trump replied.
Whilst as mentioned earlier Trumps stance had softened slightly he remained fairly insistent saying ‘For certain areas I would (allow a fence) but certain areas, a wall is more appropriate. I’m good at this it’s called construction’.
Stahl moved on to The president elect’s stance on the deportation of millions of illegal nationals. To which trump replied. ‘What we are going to do is get the people that are criminal and have criminal records, gang members, drug dealers, we have a lot of these people, probably two million, it could even be three million, we are getting them out of our country or we are going to incarcerate.
Trump continued, ‘But we’re getting them out of our country, they’re here illegally. He concluded this topic by saying ‘Lesley, it’s very important, we want to secure the border’.
When questioned on his stance on lobbyist and previous history and the fact that many of his transition team where heavily involved with lobbying trump remained firm saying.
‘Everything, everything down there– there are no people– there are all people that work — that’s the problem with the system, the system. Right now, we’re going to clean it up. We’re having restrictions on foreign money coming in, we’re going to put on term limits, which a lot of people aren’t happy about, but we’re putting on term limits. We’re doing a lot of things to clean up the system. But everybody that works for government, they then leave government and they become a lobbyist, essentially. I mean, the whole place is one big lobbyist’.
Trump concluded this exchange by saying ‘I’m saying the they know the system right now, but we’re going to phase that out. You have to phase it out’.
Stahl them probed for an indication on trumps choice of republican cabinets asking.
‘Have you made any decisions’ to which trump replied ‘yes’ adding. ‘Well I can’t tell you that’.
He then mentioned that he had received phone call from every major world leader. Saying this demonstrated ‘how powerful this country was’.
Trumps goals for the first 100 days as president
In the lead up to the presidential race Trump stated whilst at a rally in Gettysburg. the plan included the process of cleaning up Washington. A strategy to protect American workers the importance of restoring law.
He also projected his views and ways of annulling Obamacare and ways he planned to encourage infrastructure investment, renovate military compounds and promote more flexibility around schooling and education. He also took the time to renew he objectives of creating a wall to protect the US from illegal immigrants from Mexico. Outlaying that the proposed cost of the wall would be footed by Mexico.
His comments were endorsed and in some cases viewed sceptically by Mitch McConell, who viewed trumps Infrastructure plans as ‘not a top priority’.
McConell however, stood strong on Trumps goals to completely abolish the current Obamacare system declaring change as a ‘pretty high item on our agenda’. He also supported a complete overhaul of the Tax system and wanted to renew border security ‘in whatever way is the most effective’.
Concluding that the senate looked forward to working with Trump and saying that the senate would be very likely to support many of the president elect’s objectives.
Trumps Cabinet selection
Although the future president is yet to select his cabinet there have been a host of meeting that have been held both a trump tower New York and more recently at his local golf club retreat.
Potential cabinet members could include –
Willbur Ross – known for successfully turning around troubled mining, coal and textile companies. Likely to take up position as secretary of commerce for the cabinet. Ross is extremely outspoken and has previously said that ‘politicians don’t know a good deal from a bad one’.
Mitt Romney – Known for his unsuccessful presidential race against Obama in 2012. Romney had voice ferocious criticism against Trump however, since has been meeting with Trump at the new Jersey golf club where he described their conversations as ‘far reaching’ he is asked is expected to take the secretary of state role.
Already appointed cabinet members –
Ken Blackwell – who was request by Trump to prepare the domestic policy selection of the transition team.
Jeff sessions – was nominated by Trump to fill the role of Attorney general. Known for openly opposing immigration. Steven was once rejected to be a federal judge on the grounds of racism.
Mike Pence – Vice president to Trump is being suggested to be the most important man in Washington.
Reince Priebus – current chairman of the republican party Priebus will hold the title of chief of staff. Priebus will more than likely work side by side with the more controversial figure Steve Bannon in order to appeal to both traditionalist and revolutionary republicans.
Steve Bannon – the executive chairman of Breitbart news frequently described as the ‘most dangerous political operative in America. He will be charged with running the campaign as chief strategist.
Senator Jeff sessions – Sessions will hold the role US attorney general. The former Attorney for Alabama and actively endorsed Trump on his campaign visits to the state.
Republican Mike Pomeo – will hold the position of Director of the CIA. Pomeo a current member of the Tea party has served as a lawyer in the state of Kansas and enjoyed time in the US military as a cavalry officer before starting his political career in 2011.
Mike Flynn – Potentially the most controversial of Trumps cabinet selection. Flynn who has been advising trump on security for the last few months. He retired in 2014 following criticism from the Obama regime who disliked his approach to dealing with foreign affairs in particular ISIS. He was also controversially viewed sitting next to Putin at a dinner.
How Markets reacted leading up to and after the announcement of Trump
Many had expected Brexit like crashes in currency and a great sentiment to risk adversity and leading up to the election this was indeed the case.
When the FBI announced that they had potential new evidence EUR/USD gradually moved from 1.08959 on the 27 of OCT to 1.11411 on the 5 of Nov. It was very clear that the polls which now showed that the two candidates were tighter were doing nothing to help USD strength.
Gold prices on the other hand rose from $40,80 per gram on the 27th to $41.95 provided the safe haven that investors needed.
On election night both Golds movement and the USD weakness shadowed each other Gold spiking to over $42,40 a gram and the USD weakening to 1.1268 at its peak on election night.
Following the result and Trumps more rational speech markets calmed and the USD regained strength incrementally, Before EUR/USD hit a low of 1.0662 last seen in December 2015.
The movement which has been spurred by the likely chance of Fiscal stimulus under the Trump regime. Therefore, the Fed will likely face more pressure to tighten monetary policy. A stronger US dollar is also likely to ease concerns over inflationary pressures and rate hikes also now appear to be 90% probable before the end of the year.