The Week Ahead Dominated by Economic Data Releases From China, NZ, US and Europe

Early Monday morning sees the release of the trade balance for China which has missed its forecast number 4 times in the last months. The data indicates the difference in the value of imported vs exported goods, a weak number would generally see commodity currency’s slide. A number of 313B is expected.

Tuesday, the market’s focus is turned back to the UK with the release of its Manufacturing figures. Expected to come in at a flat 0.0% an even weaker number would surely see GBP slide further. We also receive preliminary non-farm productivity and from Labour costs from the US.

Moving to Australia, Wednesday sees the reserve bank’s governor Glenn Stevens speak, typically the AUD becomes volatile during these speeches. This will only be exasperated by ongoing concerns regarding employment in Australia. Later on in the evening focus will turn to NZ with the release of the official cash rate, normally priced into the market we anticipate a cut of 0.25% to 2.00%. Any more than .25% and the NZD would surely plunge further. Following the rate announcement, the official release from the RBNZ will take place, typically this is used to convey the reason for the outcome and where needed stabilise markets.

Thursday sees more focus on the NZD as early morning (GMT) Governor Graham Wheeler will speak to the market. As head of the RBNZ traders and institutions will listen closely to his statement and market sentiment will follow. A dovish tone will surely see the NZD lose ground. In the afternoon the US releases it unemployment claims which are anticipated at 272k, following the non-farms if further strength was underlined by fewer people filing for unemployment the dollar has good potential to rise further and the question of the rate hike will once again be raised. Late evening Thursday, we return to NZ for the quarterly Retail figures anticipated 1.0%.

Friday provides us with a handful of European data in the form of German and Italian preliminary GDP. Germany being the most important, it is anticipated to be 0.3% having been dramatically revised down following BREXIT. Mays figure came in at 0.7% anything over 0.3% would surely see the Euro gain some strength. After noon we move to the US which releases its figures for Core Retail Sales, PPI and retails sales. Core retails sales have either matched of exceeded expectation four of the last five months and this should continue.  PPI used to gauge consumer inflation, this month’s figure is predicted to be 0.1%. The working week concludes with the US consumer sentiment figure which gauges confidence in the economy a number over 91.5 will highlight a confident consumer spending outlook.

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